Case study (hypothetical): Drew Allar — how draft protection can bridge lost value

Hypothetical, public-source analysis of how a season-ending knee injury could shift Drew Allar from first-round projections to a later round—and how a loss-of-value policy might offset the earnings gap.

NIL Insurance Company Drew Allar Case Study

This case study is based on public reporting. We did not insure or advise this athlete. Coverage examples are illustrative. Actual eligibility and benefits depend on underwriting, medical review, documented earning potential, and policy terms.

Summary

  • Context: Highly compensated college quarterback with first-round draft projections.
  • Setback: Season-ending knee injury; some projections now place him in a later round.
  • Lesson: Draft protection (loss-of-value) can help offset the earnings gap created by an injury-driven slide.

Background

Drew Allar entered the season as one of the top college quarterbacks, with credible expectations of being a first-round selection in the 2026 NFL Draft. First-round outcomes vary widely (for illustration: recent No. 1 overall QB compensation estimated around the high seven to low eight figures for year one; late first-rounders materially less).

The setback and the financial impact

Following a season-ending knee injury, some projections now place Allar in the middle rounds. That change can compress guaranteed money and total contract value. For illustration only: if a prospect projected in round one later goes in round four, the year-one compensation and multi-year guarantee can drop by several million dollars.

What the right coverage might have done (illustrative)

A Draft Protection (Loss-of-Value) policy is designed to address precisely this scenario. If an injury or illness materially reduces draft position or contract value (as defined in the policy), it can pay a benefit pegged to the difference between the pre-injury projection baseline and the actual outcome, up to the policy limit.

  • Illustrative structure: establish a first-round baseline, document projections from recognized sources, and set a policy limit (for example, a multi-million cap) that pays if the athlete is selected significantly later with a correspondingly lower contract value.
  • Important: Trigger definitions, acceptable projection sources, caps, and offsets vary by carrier and are subject to underwriting and medical review.

How our NIL coverage process works

  1. Determine future insurable income and projection baseline (documentation, consensus projections).
  2. Submit documentation (NIL, endorsements, agent/advisory materials when applicable).
  3. Submit medical records.
  4. Underwriters review.
  5. Receive a quote (limits, riders, definitions).
  6. Issue the policy.

Takeaways for athletes, parents, & programs

  • Lock the baseline early. Draft protection works best when projection evidence is documented before the injury.
  • Define triggers clearly. Know what counts as a material slide and which sources determine it.
  • Consider pairing coverages. Some athletes combine Permanent Total Disability and a Specified Injury/Critical Illness rider with Loss-of-Value for broader protection.

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